Bitcoin Price Hits Highest Since May 2022 Amid Crypto ETF Fever. Where Prices Go Next.

“ETF mania finally propelled it above this year’s pivotal resistance area of $31,000 to $32,000,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo. “It seems nothing will deter this ETF enthusiasm and it’s only a matter of time before a spot Bitcoin ETF gets approved by the SEC, likely a whole stack of ETFs.”

Crypto bulls are eyeing the possible conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an exchange-traded fund, or the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs that BlackRock and other financial firms have applied to offer. Existing Bitcoin funds hold futures, so the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would hold the token itself, would mark a milestone for cryptos.

The possibility of a spot Bitcoin ETF has loomed for months. It is expected to usher in a fresh wave of retail and institutional investor interest and pave the way for wider adoption of digital assets. But the launch of any spot Bitcoin ETF will require the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has a history of being tough on crypto. While these ETFs now look inevitable, there could still be bumps in the road.

But traders continue to look on the bright side, helping Bitcoin vastly outperform the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
and
S&P 500
in the stock market in recent days. The latest fuel for the gains includes a federal appeals court on Monday formalizing Grayscale’s legal win against the SEC, putting its application for conversion back in the regulator’s hands.

On Monday, ETF hopes got an additional boost when analysts noticed that
BlackRock’s
iShares Bitcoin Trust had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website with the ticker “IBTC.” BlackRock also updated the fund’s prospectus late last week, putting language in the filing that suggested the fund could receive its initial funding as soon as October. A BlackRock spokeswoman declined to comment, citing SEC restrictions.

Adding to the uncertainty, the “IBTC” entry disappeared from the DTCC list on Tuesday. The DTCC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Some analysts noted that such changes often don’t happen until immediately before an ETF begins trading.

“BlackRock’s moves are typical for an ETF expecting to launch in week or so,” wrote Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on X, adding that other information he had heard would indicate that a launch could take another couple of months. Balchunas and his colleagues have given a 90% chance that a Bitcoin ETF would be launch by Jan. 10, when the SEC faces a final deadline to decide on one of the products.

The SEC declined to comment.

Also working against the prospect that a BlackRock ETF is actually imminent is the fact that the company’s proposed fund is the only product that appeared, albeit temporarily, on the DTCC website. Several other firms, including Fidelity, Invesco (IVZ) and Ark Investment Management, have all filed to launch nearly identical products. Analysts in the past have predicted that the agency would allow many such products to come to market at once, so as not to be seen as picking a winner.

So where do Bitcoin prices go next?

“Bitcoin’s exuberance over the past 24 hours needs to dissipate before we can expect any further significant moves higher given its momentum indicators are looking technically overstretched from the one-hour to the one-day timeframes,” said Nexo’s Trenchev.

Other market observers are more bullish.

“The $31,000 to $46,000 range is an area of thin air with not many obstacles. The market blew it down quickly last year, and it is worth being ready to mirror the move this time around,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at broker FxPro.

“We remain short-term bullish given positive short-term momentum,” said Katie Stockton, managing partner at technical research firm Fairlead Strategies. Bitcoin’s “decisive” breakout targets resistance just shy of $36,000 in the fourth quarter of this year, she added.

It was a sea of green beyond Bitcoin as other cryptos surged, too.
Ether,
the second-largest token, advanced 9% to $1,825. Smaller cryptos or altcoins were also buoyant, with
Cardano
climbing 7% and
Polygon
popping 6%. Memecoins also gained, with
Dogecoin
jumping 6% and
Shiba Inu
5% higher.

Write to Jack Denton at [email protected] and Joe Light at [email protected]