Fed’s Bowman sees inflation falling, calls for caution on rate cuts

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman on Friday said she expects U.S. inflation to decline further, but flagged worries about upward price pressure from rising wages and warned against cutting interest rates too soon.

“My baseline outlook is that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held at the current level,” Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to a banking conference in Maui, Hawaii, noting that recent declines in inflation have been “encouraging.”

If inflation continues to decline sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% goal, she said, “it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower our policy rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.”

But stronger-than-expected job market data published Friday suggests a pickup in wage growth and a stalling out of last year’s progress toward labor market rebalancing, she said, adding that labor market tightness could keep underlying inflation elevated.

“I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy,” Bowman said. “Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run.”

Bowman voted with her Fed colleagues on Wednesday to keep the Fed’s policy rate on hold in the 5.25%-5.5% range, where it has been since last July. Most Fed policymakers expect a round of rate cuts this year, with markets currently betting they will begin at their April 30-May 1 meeting.